With the 22nd round of the Brazilian Serie A in the books, UFMG has updated its relegation probabilities, placing Santos, Vasco, and Internacional on high alert.
The 22nd round of the Brazilian Championship Serie A concluded last Sunday, creating an even more tense scenario for the bottom of the table. With the final stretch of the competition approaching, statistical analysis has become a crucial barometer for the teams involved.
According to data released by the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at UFMG, as presented by Itatiaia, several traditional clubs in Brazilian football are seeing their relegation chances rise significantly. The study highlights Chapecoense, Remo, Santos, Vasco, and Internacional as the five teams at the greatest risk of dropping to the second division.
The Relegation Zone Landscape
Chapecoense remains in a critical situation, stuck at the bottom of the table with only ten points. Their 2-1 defeat to Coritiba away from home solidified their high probability of relegation, as indicated by the study. Just above them, Remo, who drew 2-2 with Atlético, occupies the 19th spot and also faces an elevated risk.
Among the larger clubs, the pressure is palpable. Santos, after being beaten by Athletico-PR on Sunday, saw their relegation probability jump to 52.5%. Vasco da Gama faces a similar situation; despite a 0-0 draw against Bahia at Fonte Nova, they maintain a worrying 47% probability of falling to Serie B. Internacional rounds out the list of major clubs with a considerable 40.3% risk.
The Full UFMG Risk List
The UFMG analysis offers a detailed perspective on the situation of every team, serving as a wake-up call for the need to bounce back. The percentages reflect recent performance and results, projecting scenarios for the upcoming rounds of the Brazilian Serie A.
Below is the complete list of relegation risks for each team, according to the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at UFMG study, following the conclusion of Matchday 22:
- Chapecoense – 99.29%
- Remo – 57.1%
- Santos – 52.5%
- Vasco da Gama – 47.0%
- Internacional – 40.3%
- Mirassol – 32.2%
- Grêmio – 24.3%
- Vitória – 18.2%
- São Paulo – 15.0%
- Coritiba – 4.2%
- Atlético-MG – 2.7%
- Botafogo – 2.5%
- Bragantino – 1.8%
- Bahia – 0.95%
- Corinthians – 0.81%
- Cruzeiro – 0.80%
- Fluminense – 0.27%
- Athletico-PR – 0.002%
- Palmeiras – 0.000%
- Flamengo – 0.000%
The updated UFMG data intensifies the drama of the Brazilian Championship, with clubs that boast massive fanbases and rich histories currently under threat. The coming rounds will be decisive, turning every match into a virtual final for those fighting to escape the relegation zone and remain in the national football elite.
The scramble for points is heating up, and the ability to respond will be fundamental in determining their fates in the competition.
