Following the conclusion of the 20th round of the Brazilian Serie A, the UFMG mathematics department has updated its relegation probabilities, putting several national football giants on high alert in the standings.
The 20th round of the Brazilian Championship concluded this Sunday (26th), bringing significant changes to the bottom of the table. Based on the precise calculations from Professor Gilcione Costa, of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at UFMG, the danger zone has intensified for several traditional clubs fighting to avoid relegation to Serie B.
The study indicates that Chapecoense, Vasco, Remo, and Santos currently face the highest mathematical risk of falling. Among the four, Remo was the only one able to breathe a sigh of relief this round, following an important 2-0 victory over Vitória, led by head coach Léo Condé.
The struggles of the southern clubs
The most concerning situation among clubs with large fanbases remains in the southern region of the country. According to the statistics, Grêmio has a 41.1% chance of relegation, followed closely by Internacional at 40.9%. The inconsistent performance of these teams has been directly reflected in the numbers, keeping fans anxious for the remainder of the second half of the season.
Minas Gerais on high alert
In Minas Gerais football, the warning signs are also flashing, albeit with less intensity. Atlético-MG, which secured a fundamental 2-1 victory over Palmeiras, is breathing a bit easier with a 3.4% probability of relegation.
Meanwhile, Cruzeiro, following their 1-0 loss to Botafogo, saw their relegation risk rise to 7.5%. Although not in the primary danger zone, the margin for error for the ‘Raposa’ has narrowed.
“The numbers do not lie and reflect the weight of every matchday in this decisive phase of the national tournament,” state UFMG experts.
The competition remains wide open, and the upcoming rounds promise to be crucial in determining which teams can turn the math in their favor. Flamengo, on the other hand, maintains a practically non-existent risk of just 0.002%, consolidating its position at the opposite end of the table.
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