Palmeiras remains the favorite for the Campeonato Brasileiro title, showing over 60% probability of winning after the conclusion of the 22nd round, according to data from UFMG.
The battle for the top of the Brasileirão Série A table remains intense, but with one name emerging as the main candidate for the trophy. According to a survey conducted by the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at UFMG, Palmeiras has consolidated its lead in probabilities, reaching a 60.1% chance of becoming national champions.
The mathematical scenario was updated after the completion of the 22nd round. Even with a 0-0 draw against Internacional last Sunday (9), the team led by coach Abel Ferreira remains the absolute favorite for the trophy this season, maintaining a considerable advantage over direct competitors.
Flamengo and Athletico-PR Form the Elite Group
Following in the probabilities table, Flamengo appears as the second-highest candidate. After securing an important 2-0 victory over Vitória, the Rubro-Negro reached a 25% chance of winning the First Division title. The Rio de Janeiro team is trying to close the gap to the top and stay alive in the fight.
Completing the trio with the highest mathematical chances, Athletico-PR, under the command of Odair Hellman, appears with an 11.7% probability. O Furacão, who defeated Santos 2-0 in the round, is establishing itself as one of the competition’s major forces, surpassing traditional teams in long-term statistical projections.
The Competition Landscape
The statistical analysis, provided by researcher Gilcione Costa, offers a precise barometer for the final stretch of the Campeonato Brasileiro. While the top three teams accumulate the highest percentages, other clubs like Cruzeiro, Fluminense, and Corinthians appear with reduced margins, below 1%, highlighting the consolidated lead held by the front trio.
Check out the list of title probabilities after the 22nd round:
- Palmeiras — 60.1%
- Flamengo — 25.0%
- Athletico-PR — 11.7%
- Cruzeiro — 0.69%
- Fluminense — 0.65%
- Corinthians — 0.53%
- Bragantino — 0.43%
- Botafogo — 0.33%
- Bahia — 0.28%
- Atlético-MG — 0.21%
- Coritiba — 0.099%
- São Paulo — 0.022%
- Grêmio — 0.007%
- Mirassol — 0.006%
- Vitória — 0.006%
- Vasco da Gama — 0.001%
- Santos, Remo, Internacional and Chapecoense — 0.000%
With these numbers established, expectations now turn to the upcoming rounds of the Brasileirão, where direct clashes between the favorites and consistent on-field performance will be decisive in altering these percentages and determining the 2026 champion. Equipe M360
